Spain Faces 141 Climate Risks by 2025, According to the ERICC-2025 Report

• Climate change

Spain is facing an increasingly challenging environmental scenario due to the effects of climate change. The Climate Change Risk and Impact Assessment in Spain 2025 (ERICC-2025) report, presented by the Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge (MITECO), has identified a total of 141 climate risks that could seriously affect human health, the national economy, and the country’s ecosystems.

This scientific and technical document represents a milestone in climate planning in Spain, as it provides a comprehensive and detailed diagnosis that will help guide public adaptation policies in the coming years.

What is ERICC-2025 and why is it relevant?

ERICC-2025 is the first national climate risk assessment of this scale carried out in Spain. Developed between 2023 and 2025 by a consortium of scientific institutions—including IH Cantabria, Tecnalia, and the Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3)—together with the Spanish Office for Climate Change (OECC), the report not only identifies threats but also prioritizes them to support informed decision-making on climate adaptation.

Its relevance is twofold: on the one hand, it provides a systematic overview of climate hazards across all key sectors; on the other, it establishes a solid technical foundation for the new national climate change adaptation strategy to be implemented between 2026 and 2030.

Main findings: what threats does Spain face?

According to the report, the 141 identified risks affect sectors as diverse as health, water resources, the economy, the environment, and biodiversity. Of these, 51 have been classified as “key risks” due to their severity or immediacy, and 17 show low reversibility, meaning their impacts could be permanent if action is not taken quickly.

Human health

Rising temperatures and the increasing frequency of prolonged heatwaves are directly linked to health problems, especially among vulnerable groups such as older adults or people with respiratory conditions. Extreme heat events can lead to heat stress, increased cardiovascular disease, and higher heat-related mortality.

Economy and productive sectors

Sectors such as agriculture, tourism, fisheries, and energy are particularly vulnerable. Prolonged droughts, more frequent wildfires, and extreme weather events can reduce productivity, affect water availability, and increase costs associated with natural disasters.

Ecosystems and biodiversity

Biodiversity loss, soil degradation, salinization of coastal aquifers, and sea level rise are among the most critical environmental risks. These phenomena not only destroy natural habitats but also reduce ecosystems’ capacity to recover.

Water resources

The availability of freshwater is threatened by changes in precipitation patterns, more intense droughts, and increasing competition between human and ecosystem uses.

Future climate scenarios: what does the report say?

The report warns that the most extreme scenarios are already materializing in Spain. Among the most concerning projections:

• Average temperatures could rise by 2 to 3°C by mid-century and up to 6°C by the end of the century if urgent measures are not taken.

• Sea levels could rise by 50 to 60 centimeters by 2100, putting beaches, coastal infrastructure, and populated areas at risk.

• The risk of wildfires could increase by more than 30% in the Mediterranean basin, with longer fire seasons and more intense events.

These scenarios represent not only economic losses but also a serious deterioration in the quality of life for millions of people in Spain.

Interconnection between climate risks

One of the most notable conclusions of ERICC-2025 is that climate risks do not act in isolation, but are deeply interconnected. The report identifies more than 1,700 interrelations between different risks, meaning that the intensification of one phenomenon can amplify other adverse effects.

For example, the simultaneous occurrence of extreme droughts and heatwaves can worsen water scarcity, increase heat-related mortality, and raise the likelihood of wildfires, creating a cycle of impacts that is difficult to manage without coordinated approaches.

What does this mean for society and public policy?

ERICC-2025 not only describes risks but also serves as a foundation for guiding climate adaptation policies in Spain. The document will be key for the next cycle of the National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (PNACC) 2026–2030, which will define strategies and concrete actions to reduce territorial and social vulnerability.

Key recommendations include the need to:

• Strengthen the resilience of health systems to heatwaves and emerging diseases.

• Enhance the protection of critical ecosystems and ecological corridors affected by degradation.

• Develop urban and rural infrastructure capable of withstanding extreme events such as floods or droughts.

• Promote education and citizen participation in climate adaptation.

In addition, various sectors—from agriculture to tourism—will need to adjust their production models to cope with more adverse climatic conditions through sustainable, low-impact strategies.

An urgent call to action

ERICC-2025 delivers a clear warning: climate action is not a choice, it is a necessity. The identified climate risks are already manifesting in more frequent heatwaves, prolonged droughts, and sudden floods.

Without robust mitigation and adaptation measures, Spain could face severe consequences for public health, the economy, and ecosystem integrity. The report shows that while climate change impacts are complex and interconnected, effective tools and strategies exist to reduce them if implemented with determination and coordination.